How Many Permanent Residents Will Canada Accept This Year? Our Predictions & Advice for Newcomers.

Summary of Key Points:

Contrary to early predictions, the IRCC has set the permanent resident admission target at 380,000 for 2026-2028, marking a significant decrease from previous years. While this target is in place, adjustments may still occur in response to labour shortages, political changes, or global events. More than 91,000 permanent residents are expected to be selected from this current temporary residents through Provincial Nominee Programs, with an additional 124,000 anticipated through targeted Express Entry Draws. To navigate this competitive landscape, Panel Physician has some tips to help give your application a higher chance of success.

Updated December 2025

• Estimated Reading Time: ~6 minutes

• What You’ll Learn:

  • How many permanent residents Canada plans to admit in 2026

  • What the 2026 PR target decreased, and what influenced the decision

  • Factors that could cause mid-year adjustments to the target

  • Why temporary residents may have an advantage in 2026

  • Tips to help enhance your application’s potential for success

• Next Steps:

  • Confirm your eligibility for programs like Express Entry, PNP, or family sponsorship

  • Gather and update required documents early to avoid delays

  • Monitor processing times and immigration policy updates

  • Schedule your IME with a Panel Physician as early as possible

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How Many Permanent Residents Will Canada Accept This Year? Our Predictions & Advice for Newcomers.

Each year, the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) sets an official target for permanent resident admissions, based on its Immigration Levels Plan. These targets reflect Canada’s commitment to strengthening its economy and promoting diversity, while also addressing labour shortages.

Early predictions were expecting an increase in resident targets for 2026 (following previous target trends); however, the actual target goal has decreased this year. Our Panel Physician expats break down the plans for 2026 and our predictions for any adjustments while providing tips on how newcomers should navigate the system.

Learn More: Canada Plans Immigration Target Reductions in 2026

Permanent Resident Targets for 2026

As mentioned above, under the 2024-2026 Levels Plan, early predictions for permanent resident targets for 2026 were expected around 437,500 (an increase from 2025’s plan of 400,000 to 420,000 permanent residents). However, when the IRCC released the official target plans in November, the target amount was actually set to be between 380,000 permanent residents.

At first glance, this forecasted decrease may have a negative connotation, but there are positive intentions behind it. The goal of the decrease is to help pause population growth in the short term to achieve well-managed, sustainable growth and economic prosperity for the long term.

Predictions for Adjustments or Variations

While the official target for 2026 has been set, actual immigration numbers may vary due to several factors, including policy changes, processing delays and global events. Potential adjustments could be influenced by:

• Economic Needs & Labour Market Demands: Canada continues to experience labour shortages in key industries, including healthcare, technology, research, and construction. If shortages persist, we may see additional pathways or increased quotas in these areas.

• Political Climate & Policy Shifts: The upcoming elections and government priorities could lead to changes in immigration policies, either expediting or limiting certain programs.

• Global Events & Refugee Considerations: Canada has been a leader in humanitarian immigration, and unforeseen global crises could lead to an increase in refugee admissions or special immigration measures.

Trends That Are Shaping The Immigration Figures

We’re seeing a big shift in priority for 2026—a focus on current temporary residents. More than 40% of anticipated permanent resident admissions in 2026 are predicted to be from in-Canada applicants.

This new trend will help shape Canada’s immigration landscape this year. Many provinces are playing a larger role in selecting skilled immigrants tailored to their workforce needs, leading to a rise in Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) invitations. The government is also seeing an increase in Express Entry draws for targeted occupations—specifically healthcare professionals, STEM workers and other candidates with special skills and work experience.

Learn More: Canada’s Express Entry Draw: What It Is & How It Works

Tips for Navigating the System for 2026

For those planning to apply for permanent residency in Canada, staying informed and prepared is crucial. Here are some key steps:

• Understand Your Eligibility: Research which immigration programs suit your qualifications, whether it’s Express Entry, PNP or family sponsorship.

• Prepare Documents in Advance: Ensure your educational credentials, language test results and work experience documents are up to date. To get a full list of document requirements, visit the IRCC application website.

• Monitor Application Timelines: Processing times can vary; staying ahead of deadlines will help you avoid unnecessary delays. If you’ve already submitted an application, you can check your status here.

• Seek Professional Guidance: Immigration consultants and legal professionals can provide valuable insights into application strategies.

Start Your Immigration Process With Panel Physician

You can help streamline your application process by scheduling your Immigration Medical Exam (IME) early. This is a mandatory step in the immigration process that ensures health requirements are met for all applicants seeking permanent residency in Canada.

Our medical experts at Panel Physician are IRCC-approved, meaning we meet all medical requirements and compliances set by the IRCC. For more information on IMEs and how to book an appointment, reach out to a certified Panel Physician today.